FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Isco

AMSpain · Real Betis Balompié

№ 85288Established €1.5M +0.82

Player dossierLaLiga

Isco

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Real Betis Balompié
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
34
Height
176 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Isco at €3.5M. Model A, which never saw Isco during training, estimates €1.5M: the market value is 127% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.27. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.82A €1.5M▲ +1.05B €1.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
33
Minutes
1,941
Goals
11
Assists
9
Started
21/33
Min / app
59
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Isco…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3.5MModel A €1.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Isco's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 99th, Assists per 90 99th, Minutes, two years 35th, Starts 39th, Minutes, last 365 days 6th, European club minutes 60th99thGoals99thAssists35thMinutes39thStarts6thRecent60thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.51 this player0.08 midfielder median99th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€2M
Jul 2011
Peak
€90M
Oct 2018
Model target
€3.5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
44
4 club changes
Jun 2026€3.5MReal Betis BalompiéValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €3.5M, Real Betis Balompié. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2011-07-29€2MMálaga CF
2012-02-03€6MMálaga CF
2012-04-14€8MMálaga CF
2012-08-07€12MMálaga CF
2012-11-03€15MMálaga CF
2013-01-11€20MMálaga CF
2013-06-12€25MMálaga CF
2013-07-25€30MReal Madrid
2013-09-17€35MReal Madrid
2014-01-23€35MReal Madrid
2014-07-20€35MReal Madrid
2015-01-23€45MReal Madrid
2015-07-01€45MReal Madrid
2016-02-22€45MReal Madrid
2016-04-07€40MReal Madrid
2016-07-15€35MReal Madrid
2017-01-24€35MReal Madrid
2017-06-05€40MReal Madrid
2018-01-01€75MReal Madrid
2018-05-30€75MReal Madrid
2018-10-31€90MReal Madrid
2018-12-21€75MReal Madrid
2019-02-28€60MReal Madrid
2019-06-11€60MReal Madrid
2019-12-20€50MReal Madrid
2020-04-08€40MReal Madrid
2020-10-08€30MReal Madrid
2020-11-23€20MReal Madrid
2021-01-05€20MReal Madrid
2021-06-10€18MReal Madrid
2021-10-13€15MReal Madrid
2021-12-30€9MReal Madrid
2022-03-21€7.5MReal Madrid
2022-06-03€7.5MReal Madrid
2022-11-07€9MSevilla FC
2023-03-28€5MWithout Club
2023-10-13€8MReal Betis Balompié
2023-12-22€8MReal Betis Balompié
2024-06-07€8MReal Betis Balompié
2024-12-27€6MReal Betis Balompié
2025-06-09€6MReal Betis Balompié
2025-10-02€5MReal Betis Balompié
2025-12-12€4MReal Betis Balompié
2026-06-05€3.5MReal Betis Balompié

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.820

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 47% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€3.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 59% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€3.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Isco appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).