Max
Balard
DMAustralia · NAC Breda
Player dossierEredivisie
MaxBalard
DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- NAC Breda
- League
- Eredivisie
- Nationality
- Australia
- Age
- 25
- Height
- 178 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 28 May 2026
EredivisieReading the valuation
The market values Balard at €900k. Model A, which never saw Balard during training, estimates €1.5M: the market value is 39% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.63. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 67
- Minutes
- 5,811
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 2
- Started
- 67/67
- Min / app
- 87
- Cards
- 9Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Balard…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €900k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
100% this player69% midfielder median99th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €150k
- Mar 2021
- Peak
- €1.5M
- May 2025
- Model target
- €900k
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 13
- 1 club change
May 2026: €900k, NAC Breda. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-03-30 | €150k | Central Coast Mariners |
| 2021-10-01 | €150k | Central Coast Mariners |
| 2022-05-06 | €200k | Central Coast Mariners |
| 2023-04-05 | €250k | Central Coast Mariners |
| 2024-01-08 | €300k | Central Coast Mariners |
| 2024-05-28 | €450k | Central Coast Mariners |
| 2024-10-14 | €550k | NAC Breda |
| 2024-12-17 | €850k | NAC Breda |
| 2025-03-28 | €1.2M | NAC Breda |
| 2025-05-28 | €1.5M | NAC Breda |
| 2025-12-02 | €1.2M | NAC Breda |
| 2026-03-11 | €1M | NAC Breda |
| 2026-05-28 | €900k | NAC Breda |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.487
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Eredivisie425 players · median €1M
Valued above 44% of the 425 Eredivisie players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 30% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Balard appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- CrooijAMSparta Rotterdam · Eredivisie€900k
- AdewoyeCBFortuna Sittard · Eredivisie€900k
- GreimlCBNAC Breda · Eredivisie€900k
- OostingAMPEC Zwolle · Eredivisie€900k
- BittencourtCMSV Werder Bremen · midfielders€900k
- SafuriCMAntalyaspor · midfielders€900k
- BjørloCMKonyaspor · midfielders€900k
- MendelDMBaltika Kaliningrad · midfielders€900k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).