FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Maxime Estève

Maxime

Estève

CBFrance · Burnley FC

№ 842341Elite €21.6M +0.26

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

MaximeEstève

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Burnley FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
France
Age
24
Height
193 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Estève at €28M. Model A, which never saw Estève during training, estimates €21.6M: the market value is 30% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.30. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.7M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.26A €21.6M▲ +1.79B €4.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
36
Minutes
3,118
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
36/36
Min / app
87
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Estève…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €28M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €28MModel A €21.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Maxime Estève's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 55th, Starts 97th, Minutes, last 365 days 91st, European club minutes 30th18thGoals17thAssists55thMinutes97thStarts91stRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player83% defender median97th percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€800k
Oct 2021
Peak
€28M
Jun 2026
Model target
€28M
Jun 2026
Valuations
15
1 club change
Jun 2026€28MBurnley FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €28M, Burnley FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-10-08€800kMontpellier HSC
2021-12-16€3.5MMontpellier HSC
2022-05-30€4.5MMontpellier HSC
2022-11-02€4MMontpellier HSC
2023-03-27€5MMontpellier HSC
2023-06-27€7MMontpellier HSC
2023-12-18€7MMontpellier HSC
2024-05-27€7MBurnley FC
2024-09-24€9MBurnley FC
2024-12-30€11MBurnley FC
2025-03-28€18MBurnley FC
2025-05-27€20MBurnley FC
2025-10-17€24MBurnley FC
2025-12-09€25MBurnley FC
2026-06-03€28MBurnley FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.261

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 69% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€28MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 95% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€28MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Estève appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).