FairValue

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John

Patrick

CMIreland · Stade Reims

№ 841121Emerging €1.6M −0.70

Player dossierLigue 1

JohnPatrick

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Stade Reims
League
Ligue 1
Nationality
Ireland
Age
22
Height
192 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Patrick at €800k. Model A, which never saw Patrick during training, estimates €1.6M: the market value is 50% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.01. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €708k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.70A €1.6M▲ +0.12B €708k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
19
Minutes
743
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
7/19
Min / app
39
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Patrick…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €800k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €800kModel A €1.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

John Patrick's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 8th, Minutes, two years 7th, Starts 9th, Minutes, last 365 days 1st, European club minutes 30th10thGoals8thAssists7thMinutes9thStarts1stRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

0% this player0% midfielder median30th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€1M
Mar 2021
Peak
€1.2M
Jun 2025
Model target
€800k
May 2026
Valuations
14
2 club changes
May 2026€800kStade ReimsValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €800k, Stade Reims. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-03-19€1MGetafe CF U19
2021-06-10€1MGetafe CF U19
2023-04-07€700kGetafe CF B
2023-06-14€500kGetafe CF B
2023-10-13€300kGetafe CF B
2023-12-20€250kGetafe CF B
2024-03-26€200kGetafe CF B
2024-06-24€200kGetafe CF B
2024-12-18€200kGetafe CF B
2025-03-24€1MStade Reims
2025-06-03€1.2MStade Reims
2025-10-13€1MStade Reims
2025-12-11€800kStade Reims
2026-05-26€800kStade Reims

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.699

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Ligue 1423 players · median €5M

Valued above 7% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€800kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 27% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€800kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Patrick appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).