FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Anton

Bol

CBUkraine · FC Oleksandriya

№ 838384Emerging €384k +0.04

Player dossierPremier Liha

AntonBol

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
FC Oleksandriya
League
Premier Liha
Nationality
Ukraine
Age
23
Height
187 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
2 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Bol at €400k. Model A, which never saw Bol during training, estimates €384k: the market value is 4% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.04. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.7M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.04A €384k▼ −1.44B €1.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
27
Minutes
2,016
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
22/27
Min / app
75
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Bol…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €400k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €400kModel A €384k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Anton Bol's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 34th, Starts 48th, Minutes, last 365 days 62nd, European club minutes 64th18thGoals17thAssists34thMinutes48thStarts62ndRecent64thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

4% this player0% defender median64th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jan 2021
Peak
€400k
Dec 2025
Model target
€400k
Jun 2026
Valuations
12
4 club changes
Jun 2026€400kFC OleksandriyaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €400k, FC Oleksandriya. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-01-14€50kDynamo Kyiv II
2021-12-20€75kDynamo Kyiv U19
2022-05-18€75kDynamo Kyiv U19
2022-09-06€100kDynamo Kyiv U19
2022-12-06€100kDynamo Kyiv U19
2023-06-21€250kDynamo Kyiv U19
2023-12-11€300kZorya Lugansk
2024-06-06€300kZorya Lugansk
2024-10-16€250kWithout Club
2025-06-10€150kFC Oleksandriya
2025-12-18€400kFC Oleksandriya
2026-06-02€400kFC Oleksandriya

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.041

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 40% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

€50k€200k€1M€5M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 14% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Bol appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).