FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Matías

González

AMArgentina · Volos NFC

№ 831492Emerging €298k −0.18

Player dossierSuper League

MatíasGonzález

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Volos NFC
League
Super League
Nationality
Argentina
Age
24
Height
174 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values González at €250k. Model A, which never saw González during training, estimates €298k: the market value is 16% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.19. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €324k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.18A €298k▼ −0.26B €324k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
10
Minutes
489
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
4/10
Min / app
49
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for González…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €250k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €250kModel A €298k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Matías González's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 8th, Minutes, two years 1st, Starts 12th, Minutes, last 365 days 12th, European club minutes 30th10thGoals8thAssists1stMinutes12thStarts12thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

0% this player0% midfielder median30th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Feb 2021
Peak
€1.7M
Sept 2022
Model target
€250k
Jun 2026
Valuations
14
2 club changes
Jun 2026€250kVolos NFCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €250k, Volos NFC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-02-08€50kCA Banfield II
2021-10-20€50kCA Banfield II
2022-05-24€50kCA Banfield
2022-09-06€1.7MCA Banfield
2022-10-26€1.7MCA Banfield
2023-07-04€1.3MCA Banfield
2023-12-19€1MCA Banfield
2024-03-11€700kCA Banfield
2024-06-12€600kCA Banfield
2024-12-13€500kCA Banfield
2025-06-02€350kCA Banfield
2025-12-17€175kCA Banfield
2026-03-06€200kVolos NFC
2026-06-04€250kVolos NFC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.176

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 15% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€250kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 5% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€250kSee them in the Explorer →

Where González appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).