FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Jack

Milne

CBScotland · Aberdeen FC

№ 808452Emerging €1M +0.40

Player dossierPremiership

JackMilne

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Aberdeen FC
League
Premiership
Nationality
Scotland
Age
23
Height
193 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
20 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Milne at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Milne during training, estimates €1M: the market value is 49% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.49. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.40A €1M▼ −0.44B €2.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
45
Minutes
3,276
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
35/45
Min / app
73
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Milne…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.5MModel A €1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Jack Milne's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 46th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 58th, Starts 40th, Minutes, last 365 days 91st, European club minutes 67th46thGoals17thAssists58thMinutes40thStarts91stRecent67thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,126 this player1,687 defender median91st percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,941

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Sept 2022
Peak
€1.5M
May 2026
Model target
€1.5M
May 2026
Valuations
11
0 club changes
May 2026€1.5MAberdeen FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1.5M, Aberdeen FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-09-06€50kAberdeen FC
2022-12-13€50kAberdeen FC
2023-06-26€50kAberdeen FC
2023-12-05€50kAberdeen FC
2024-05-30€50kAberdeen FC
2024-12-03€50kAberdeen FC
2025-06-17€600kAberdeen FC
2025-10-08€800kAberdeen FC
2025-12-10€1MAberdeen FC
2026-03-05€1.2MAberdeen FC
2026-05-20€1.5MAberdeen FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.395

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Valued above 78% of the 311 Premiership players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 43% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Milne appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).