FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Max Dean

Max

Dean

CFEngland · KAA Gent

№ 805889Established €6.4M −0.94

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPro League

MaxDean

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
KAA Gent
League
Pro League
Nationality
England
Age
22
Height
178 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Dean at €2.5M. Model A, which never saw Dean during training, estimates €6.4M: the market value is 61% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.57. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €13.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.94A €6.4M▼ −1.68B €13.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
45
Minutes
2,369
Goals
16
Assists
2
Started
24/45
Min / app
53
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Dean…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2.5MModel A €6.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Max Dean's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 95th, Assists per 90 23rd, Minutes, two years 53rd, Starts 40th, Minutes, last 365 days 45th, European club minutes 69th95thGoals23rdAssists53rdMinutes40thStarts45thRecent69thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.61 this player0.26 attacker median95th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●1.17

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Apr 2023
Peak
€3.5M
Dec 2024
Model target
€2.5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
10
1 club change
Jun 2026€2.5MKAA GentValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €2.5M, KAA Gent. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2023-04-05€100kMilton Keynes Dons
2023-06-09€100kMilton Keynes Dons
2023-12-29€250kMilton Keynes Dons
2024-06-27€300kMilton Keynes Dons
2024-10-02€1.8MKAA Gent
2024-12-11€3.5MKAA Gent
2025-06-12€3.5MKAA Gent
2025-12-10€3.5MKAA Gent
2026-03-13€2.5MKAA Gent
2026-06-04€2.5MKAA Gent

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.943

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 60% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 48% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Dean appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).