FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
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  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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André

DMBrazil · Wolverhampton Wanderers

№ 800176Elite €26.4M −0.06

Player dossierPremier League

André

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Wolverhampton Wanderers
League
Premier League
Nationality
Brazil
Age
24
Height
176 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values André at €25M. Model A, which never saw André during training, estimates €26.4M: the market value is 5% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.06. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €24.2M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.06A €26.4M▲ +0.03B €24.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
75
Minutes
5,769
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
66/75
Min / app
77
Cards
22Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for André…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €25M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €25MModel A €26.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

André's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 20th, Assists per 90 8th, Minutes, two years 93rd, Starts 84th, Minutes, last 365 days 93rd, European club minutes 30th20thGoals8thAssists93rdMinutes84thStarts93rdRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,122 this player1,541 midfielder median93rd percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,800

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Sept 2020
Peak
€28M
May 2025
Model target
€25M
Jun 2026
Valuations
17
2 club changes
Jun 2026€25MWolverhampton WanderersValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €25M, Wolverhampton Wanderers. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-09-09€100kFluminense FC U20
2021-02-09€250kFluminense FC U20
2021-05-28€500kFluminense Football Club
2021-12-17€2MFluminense Football Club
2022-04-06€6MFluminense Football Club
2022-08-19€8MFluminense Football Club
2022-11-14€10MFluminense Football Club
2023-04-07€14MFluminense Football Club
2023-07-25€15MFluminense Football Club
2023-12-11€25MFluminense Football Club
2024-03-28€25MFluminense Football Club
2024-06-17€25MFluminense Football Club
2024-12-16€25MWolverhampton Wanderers
2025-05-30€28MWolverhampton Wanderers
2025-12-09€28MWolverhampton Wanderers
2026-03-09€25MWolverhampton Wanderers
2026-06-03€25MWolverhampton Wanderers

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.056

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 63% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€25MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 91% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€25MSee them in the Explorer →

Where André appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).