FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
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  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
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  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Asker

Beck

CMDenmark · Viborg FF

№ 799924Emerging €1.1M −0.63

Player dossierSuperliga

AskerBeck

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Viborg FF
League
Superliga
Nationality
Denmark
Age
22
Height
184 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
25 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Beck at €600k. Model A, which never saw Beck during training, estimates €1.1M: the market value is 47% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.89. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.63A €1.1M▼ −0.84B €1.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
37
Minutes
1,746
Goals
5
Assists
4
Started
17/37
Min / app
47
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Beck…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €600k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €600kModel A €1.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Asker Beck's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 90th, Assists per 90 85th, Minutes, two years 31st, Starts 16th, Minutes, last 365 days 35th, European club minutes 30th90thGoals85thAssists31stMinutes16thStarts35thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.26 this player0.08 midfielder median90th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Dec 2021
Peak
€600k
Dec 2025
Model target
€600k
May 2026
Valuations
8
2 club changes
May 2026€600kViborg FFValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €600k, Viborg FF. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-12-28€50kAarhus GF U19
2023-09-19€25kKolding IF
2023-12-21€100kKolding IF
2024-06-18€250kKolding IF
2024-12-09€350kKolding IF
2025-06-16€400kViborg FF
2025-12-15€600kViborg FF
2026-05-25€600kViborg FF

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.634

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Superliga256 players · median €800k

Valued above 34% of the 256 Superliga players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€600kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 20% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€600kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Beck appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).