Jobe
Bellingham
CMEngland · Borussia Dortmund
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierBundesliga
JobeBellingham
CMCentral MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Borussia Dortmund
- League
- Bundesliga
- Nationality
- England
- Age
- 20
- Height
- 191 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 27 May 2026
BundesligaReading the valuation
The market values Bellingham at €40M. Model A, which never saw Bellingham during training, estimates €39.9M: the market value is level with that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.00. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €16.9M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 49
- Minutes
- 2,892
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 5
- Started
- 32/49
- Min / app
- 59
- Cards
- 5Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Bellingham…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €40M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
30% this player0% midfielder median96th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €500k
- Nov 2021
- Peak
- €40M
- May 2026
- Model target
- €40M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 13
- 3 club changes
May 2026: €40M, Borussia Dortmund. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-11-24 | €500k | Birmingham City U18 |
| 2022-10-27 | €3M | Birmingham City |
| 2023-06-01 | €5M | Birmingham City |
| 2023-10-27 | €6M | Sunderland AFC |
| 2023-12-21 | €9M | Sunderland AFC |
| 2024-05-24 | €12M | Sunderland AFC |
| 2024-12-30 | €18M | Sunderland AFC |
| 2025-03-28 | €22M | Sunderland AFC |
| 2025-05-27 | €22M | Sunderland AFC |
| 2025-10-14 | €30M | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2025-12-19 | €25M | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2026-03-20 | €30M | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2026-05-27 | €40M | Borussia Dortmund |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.003
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Bundesliga451 players · median €5M
Valued above 93% of the 451 Bundesliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 96% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Bellingham appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- KobelGKBorussia Dortmund · Bundesliga€40M
- BaumgartnerAMRB Leipzig · Bundesliga€40M
- DaviesLBBayern Munich · Bundesliga€40M
- StanisicRBBayern Munich · Bundesliga€40M
- McTominayCMSSC Napoli · midfielders€40M
- KamaraDMAston Villa · midfielders€40M
- TrincãoAMSporting CP · midfielders€40M
- GonzálezDMManchester City · midfielders€40M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).