Marcelo
Alves
CBBrazil · FC Sochi
Player dossierPremier Liga
MarceloAlves
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- FC Sochi
- League
- Premier Liga
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Age
- 28
- Height
- 192 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 26 May 2026
Premier LigaReading the valuation
The market values Alves at €800k. Model A, which never saw Alves during training, estimates €992k: the market value is 19% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.24. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 23
- Minutes
- 1,978
- Goals
- 2
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 23/23
- Min / app
- 86
- Cards
- 7Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Alves…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €800k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
100% this player83% defender median97th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €500k
- Sept 2020
- Peak
- €800k
- Jun 2024
- Model target
- €800k
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 15
- 4 club changes
May 2026: €800k, FC Sochi. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-09-09 | €500k | Clube de Regatas Vasco da Gama |
| 2021-02-09 | €450k | Clube de Regatas Vasco da Gama |
| 2021-08-12 | €450k | Esporte Clube Vitória |
| 2021-12-03 | €350k | Madureira EC |
| 2022-05-31 | €350k | CD Tondela |
| 2022-12-28 | €450k | CD Tondela |
| 2023-06-28 | €650k | CD Tondela |
| 2023-10-05 | €500k | FC Sochi |
| 2023-12-13 | €500k | FC Sochi |
| 2024-06-04 | €800k | FC Sochi |
| 2024-12-04 | €700k | FC Sochi |
| 2025-06-02 | €500k | FC Sochi |
| 2025-09-18 | €800k | FC Sochi |
| 2025-12-16 | €750k | FC Sochi |
| 2026-05-26 | €800k | FC Sochi |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.215
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premier Liga412 players · median €1M
Valued above 33% of the 412 Premier Liga players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 29% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Alves appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- LunevGKDynamo Moscow · Premier Liga€800k
- GudievGKAkron Tolyatti · Premier Liga€800k
- SilvaCMAkhmat Grozny · Premier Liga€800k
- BozhinCBKrylya Sovetov Samara · Premier Liga€800k
- CaraccioloCBPisa Sporting Club · defenders€800k
- BianchettiCBUS Cremonese · defenders€800k
- WidmerRB1.FSV Mainz 05 · defenders€800k
- WinckRBKasimpasa · defenders€800k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).