FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Mamadou

Maiga

DMMali · FC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod

№ 793509Emerging €540k +0.26

Player dossierPremier Liga

MamadouMaiga

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
FC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Mali
Age
31
Height
178 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Maiga at €700k. Model A, which never saw Maiga during training, estimates €540k: the market value is 30% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.30. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €469k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.26A €540k▲ +0.40B €469k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
26
Minutes
1,541
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
18/26
Min / app
59
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Maiga…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €700k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €700kModel A €540k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Mamadou Maiga's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 8th, Minutes, two years 26th, Starts 50th, Minutes, last 365 days 27th, European club minutes 30th10thGoals8thAssists26thMinutes50thStarts27thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

69% this player69% midfielder median50th percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jul 2020
Peak
€1.2M
Mar 2024
Model target
€700k
May 2026
Valuations
16
1 club change
May 2026€700kFC Pari Nizhniy NovgorodValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €700k, FC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-07-29€50kVeles Moscow
2020-10-19€150kVeles Moscow
2020-12-29€200kVeles Moscow
2021-05-24€250kVeles Moscow
2021-09-15€350kVeles Moscow
2021-12-07€450kVeles Moscow
2022-05-30€600kVeles Moscow
2022-11-21€900kFC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod
2023-06-14€900kFC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod
2023-12-13€1MFC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod
2024-03-20€1.2MFC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod
2024-06-04€1.2MFC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod
2024-12-12€900kFC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod
2025-06-04€900kFC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod
2025-12-16€800kFC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod
2026-05-26€700kFC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.259

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 24% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€700kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 23% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€700kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Maiga appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).