FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Yaroslav

Karabin

CFUkraine · Karpaty Lviv

№ 789583Emerging €574k −0.14

Player dossierPremier Liha

YaroslavKarabin

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Karpaty Lviv
League
Premier Liha
Nationality
Ukraine
Age
23
Height
182 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
2 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Karabin at €500k. Model A, which never saw Karabin during training, estimates €574k: the market value is 13% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.15. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €5.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.14A €574k▼ −2.33B €5.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
52
Minutes
3,044
Goals
6
Assists
8
Started
36/52
Min / app
59
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Karabin…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €500k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €500kModel A €574k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Yaroslav Karabin's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 30th, Assists per 90 80th, Minutes, two years 67th, Starts 67th, Minutes, last 365 days 17th, European club minutes 28th30thGoals80thAssists67thMinutes67thStarts17thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.24 this player0.15 attacker median80th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.73

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
May 2022
Peak
€800k
Dec 2024
Model target
€500k
Jun 2026
Valuations
11
2 club changes
Jun 2026€500kKarpaty LvivValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €500k, Karpaty Lviv. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-05-18€25kRukh Lviv U19
2022-09-06€50kRukh Lviv
2022-12-06€100kRukh Lviv
2023-06-21€300kRukh Lviv
2023-12-11€250kRukh Lviv
2024-06-06€400kRukh Lviv
2024-09-12€600kRukh Lviv
2024-12-17€800kRukh Lviv
2025-06-10€800kRukh Lviv
2025-12-18€500kKarpaty Lviv
2026-06-02€500kKarpaty Lviv

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.138

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 52% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

€50k€200k€1M€5M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 15% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Karabin appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).