FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Williot

Swedberg

LWSweden · Celta de Vigo

№ 764859Elite €16.8M +0.17

Player dossierLaLiga

WilliotSwedberg

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
Celta de Vigo
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Sweden
Age
22
Height
187 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Swedberg at €20M. Model A, which never saw Swedberg during training, estimates €16.8M: the market value is 19% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.19. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €23.5M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.17A €16.8M▼ −0.16B €23.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
76
Minutes
3,456
Goals
15
Assists
12
Started
39/76
Min / app
45
Cards
9Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Swedberg…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €20M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €20MModel A €16.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Williot Swedberg's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 75th, Assists per 90 92nd, Minutes, two years 73rd, Starts 37th, Minutes, last 365 days 72nd, European club minutes 79th75thGoals92ndAssists73rdMinutes37thStarts72ndRecent79thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.31 this player0.15 attacker median92nd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.73

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€900k
Sept 2021
Peak
€20M
Jun 2026
Model target
€20M
Jun 2026
Valuations
14
1 club change
Jun 2026€20MCelta de VigoValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €20M, Celta de Vigo. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-09-17€900kHammarby IF
2021-12-17€1.8MHammarby IF
2022-06-24€5MHammarby IF
2022-11-07€5MCelta de Vigo
2023-03-23€4MCelta de Vigo
2023-06-13€3MCelta de Vigo
2023-12-22€2.5MCelta de Vigo
2024-06-07€5MCelta de Vigo
2024-12-27€5MCelta de Vigo
2025-06-09€5MCelta de Vigo
2025-10-02€10MCelta de Vigo
2025-12-12€10MCelta de Vigo
2026-03-16€15MCelta de Vigo
2026-06-05€20MCelta de Vigo

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.172

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 86% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€20MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 87% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€20MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Swedberg appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).