FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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André

Lacximicant

LWPortugal · GD Estoril Praia

№ 752442Emerging €1.4M −0.56

Player dossierLiga Portugal

AndréLacximicant

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
GD Estoril Praia
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Portugal
Age
25
Height
188 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Lacximicant at €800k. Model A, which never saw Lacximicant during training, estimates €1.4M: the market value is 43% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.75. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.56A €1.4M▼ −1.03B €2.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
49
Minutes
2,202
Goals
8
Assists
5
Started
23/49
Min / app
45
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Lacximicant…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €800k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €800kModel A €1.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

André Lacximicant's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 62nd, Assists per 90 71st, Minutes, two years 50th, Starts 30th, Minutes, last 365 days 47th, European club minutes 28th62ndGoals71stAssists50thMinutes30thStarts47thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.20 this player0.15 attacker median71st percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.73

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€400k
Mar 2024
Peak
€1M
May 2025
Model target
€800k
May 2026
Valuations
7
1 club change
May 2026€800kGD Estoril PraiaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €800k, GD Estoril Praia. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2024-03-08€400kCasa Pia AC
2024-06-06€400kCasa Pia AC
2024-12-19€300kGD Estoril Praia
2025-03-31€600kGD Estoril Praia
2025-05-30€1MGD Estoril Praia
2025-12-18€800kGD Estoril Praia
2026-05-28€800kGD Estoril Praia

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.559

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 35% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€800kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 25% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€800kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Lacximicant appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).