FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Sami

Ouaissa

RMNetherlands · NEC Nijmegen

№ 747016Established €9M −0.12

Player dossierEredivisie

SamiOuaissa

RMRight MidfieldMidfield

Club
NEC Nijmegen
League
Eredivisie
Nationality
Netherlands
Age
21
Height
186 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Ouaissa at €8M. Model A, which never saw Ouaissa during training, estimates €9M: the market value is 11% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.13. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €12.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.12A €9M▼ −0.47B €12.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
72
Minutes
5,008
Goals
15
Assists
8
Started
56/72
Min / app
70
Cards
9Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ouaissa…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €8M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €8MModel A €9M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Sami Ouaissa's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 91st, Assists per 90 69th, Minutes, two years 86th, Starts 66th, Minutes, last 365 days 92nd, European club minutes 30th91stGoals69thAssists86thMinutes66thStarts92ndRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,031 this player1,541 midfielder median92nd percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,800

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Oct 2022
Peak
€8M
May 2026
Model target
€8M
May 2026
Valuations
13
1 club change
May 2026€8MNEC NijmegenValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €8M, NEC Nijmegen. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-10-12€50kRoda JC Kerkrade
2023-04-03€250kRoda JC Kerkrade
2023-07-04€275kRoda JC Kerkrade
2024-01-08€500kRoda JC Kerkrade
2024-06-10€700kRoda JC Kerkrade
2024-10-14€900kNEC Nijmegen
2024-12-17€900kNEC Nijmegen
2025-03-28€1.3MNEC Nijmegen
2025-05-28€1.5MNEC Nijmegen
2025-10-02€2.3MNEC Nijmegen
2025-12-02€2.5MNEC Nijmegen
2026-03-11€5MNEC Nijmegen
2026-05-28€8MNEC Nijmegen

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.121

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Eredivisie425 players · median €1M

Valued above 89% of the 425 Eredivisie players.

€75k€500k€3M€20M€8MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 74% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€8MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Ouaissa appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).