FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Enes

Keskin

RMTürkiye · Alanyaspor

№ 742611Emerging €609k −0.55

Player dossierSüper Lig

EnesKeskin

RMRight MidfieldMidfield

Club
Alanyaspor
League
Süper Lig
Nationality
Türkiye
Age
24
Height
185 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
21 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Keskin at €350k. Model A, which never saw Keskin during training, estimates €609k: the market value is 43% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.74. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.55A €609k▼ −1.06B €1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
33
Minutes
1,221
Goals
1
Assists
1
Started
13/33
Min / app
37
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Keskin…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €350k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €350kModel A €609k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Enes Keskin's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 45th, Assists per 90 41st, Minutes, two years 18th, Starts 11th, Minutes, last 365 days 26th, European club minutes 30th45thGoals41stAssists18thMinutes11thStarts26thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.07 this player0.08 midfielder median45th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€225k
Nov 2021
Peak
€500k
Mar 2025
Model target
€350k
May 2026
Valuations
16
5 club changes
May 2026€350kAlanyasporValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €350k, Alanyaspor. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-11-09€225kEyüpspor
2022-01-17€325kEyüpspor
2022-03-17€300kEyüpspor
2022-06-10€300kEyüpspor
2022-11-15€250kPendikspor
2023-04-03€250kGenclerbirligi Ankara
2023-06-23€325kGenclerbirligi Ankara
2023-10-20€350kGenclerbirligi Ankara
2023-12-29€400kGenclerbirligi Ankara
2024-06-03€250kIgdir FK
2024-10-16€250kPendikspor
2025-01-09€300kPendikspor
2025-03-20€500kAlanyaspor
2025-06-18€500kAlanyaspor
2025-12-17€400kAlanyaspor
2026-05-21€350kAlanyaspor

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.554

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Valued above 15% of the 428 Süper Lig players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€350kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 10% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€350kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Keskin appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).