Natan
CBBrazil · Real Betis Balompié
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierLaLiga
Natan
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- Real Betis Balompié
- League
- LaLiga
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Age
- 25
- Height
- 188 cm
- Foot
- Left
- Valued
- 5 Jun 2026
LaLigaReading the valuation
The market values Natan at €25M. Model A, which never saw Natan during training, estimates €16M: the market value is 56% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.56. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €22.2M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 82
- Minutes
- 6,466
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 3
- Started
- 72/82
- Min / app
- 79
- Cards
- 19Y 1R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Natan…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €25M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
Minutes, last 365 days
Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.
3,755 this player1,687 defender median98th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €1M
- Feb 2021
- Peak
- €25M
- Mar 2026
- Model target
- €25M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 18
- 3 club changes
Jun 2026: €25M, Real Betis Balompié. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-02-09 | €1M | CR Flamengo |
| 2021-05-28 | €1M | Red Bull Bragantino |
| 2021-09-10 | €3M | Red Bull Bragantino |
| 2021-12-17 | €3.5M | Red Bull Bragantino |
| 2022-04-06 | €4M | Red Bull Bragantino |
| 2022-08-19 | €5M | Red Bull Bragantino |
| 2022-11-14 | €5.5M | Red Bull Bragantino |
| 2023-04-07 | €5.5M | Red Bull Bragantino |
| 2023-07-25 | €5.5M | Red Bull Bragantino |
| 2023-10-11 | €10M | SSC Napoli |
| 2023-12-20 | €13M | SSC Napoli |
| 2024-06-05 | €12M | SSC Napoli |
| 2024-12-27 | €9M | Real Betis Balompié |
| 2025-06-09 | €9M | Real Betis Balompié |
| 2025-10-02 | €18M | Real Betis Balompié |
| 2025-12-12 | €20M | Real Betis Balompié |
| 2026-03-16 | €25M | Real Betis Balompié |
| 2026-06-05 | €25M | Real Betis Balompié |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.446
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 93% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Natan appears
- TerminalLaLiga in the Player Explorer
- TerminalLaLiga on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- OyarzabalCFReal Sociedad · LaLiga€25M
- SancetAMAthletic Bilbao · LaLiga€25M
- RomeroLBRCD Espanyol Barcelona · LaLiga€25M
- GorrotxategiDMReal Sociedad · LaLiga€25M
- RaumLBRB Leipzig · defenders€25M
- DumfriesRBInter Milan · defenders€25M
- RyersonRBBorussia Dortmund · defenders€25M
- MykolenkoLBEverton FC · defenders€25M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).