FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Jankat

Yılmaz

GKTürkiye · Eyüpspor

№ 727077Emerging €988k +0.42

Player dossierSüper Lig

JankatYılmaz

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Eyüpspor
League
Süper Lig
Nationality
Türkiye
Age
21
Height
193 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
21 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Yılmaz at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Yılmaz during training, estimates €988k: the market value is 52% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.52. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €794k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.42A €988k▲ +0.64B €794k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
14
Minutes
1,260
Started
14/14
Min / app
90
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Yılmaz…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.5MModel A €988k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Jankat Yılmaz's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 24th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 44th, European club minutes 32nd24thMinutes62ndStarts44thRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player100% goalkeeper median62nd percentile

70%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Aug 2022
Peak
€1.5M
May 2026
Model target
€1.5M
May 2026
Valuations
15
3 club changes
May 2026€1.5MEyüpsporValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1.5M, Eyüpspor. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-08-08€50kGalatasaray
2022-10-27€150kGalatasaray
2023-03-14€200kGalatasaray
2023-06-08€225kGalatasaray
2023-09-27€200kGalatasaray
2023-12-21€275kGalatasaray
2024-03-15€275kGalatasaray
2024-05-31€250kGalatasaray
2024-10-16€250kAdanaspor
2025-01-09€225kAdanaspor
2025-03-20€250kGalatasaray
2025-06-18€250kGalatasaray
2025-12-17€250kEyüpspor
2026-03-05€800kEyüpspor
2026-05-21€1.5MEyüpspor

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.418

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Valued above 52% of the 428 Süper Lig players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 55% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Yılmaz appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).