FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Portrait of Antonín Kinský

Antonín

Kinský

GKCzech Republic · Tottenham Hotspur

№ 725912Elite €12.1M +0.21

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

AntonínKinský

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Tottenham Hotspur
League
Premier League
Nationality
Czech Republic
Age
23
Height
190 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Kinský at €15M. Model A, which never saw Kinský during training, estimates €12.1M: the market value is 24% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.24. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.9M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.21A €12.1M▲ +1.34B €3.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
28
Minutes
2,477
Started
28/28
Min / app
88
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Kinský…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €15M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €15MModel A €12.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Antonín Kinský's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 46th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 32nd, European club minutes 98th46thMinutes62ndStarts32ndRecent98thEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

37% this player0% goalkeeper median98th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●86%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Dec 2020
Peak
€15M
Mar 2025
Model target
€15M
Jun 2026
Valuations
15
6 club changes
Jun 2026€15MTottenham HotspurValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €15M, Tottenham Hotspur. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-12-27€50kFK Dukla Prague B
2021-06-25€100kFK Dukla Prague
2021-12-26€100kSK Slavia Prague
2022-06-22€225kMFK Vyskov
2022-12-14€250kMFK Vyskov
2023-06-20€300kMFK Vyskov
2023-12-20€500kFK Pardubice
2024-03-27€1MFK Pardubice
2024-06-05€1.8MFK Pardubice
2024-09-27€5MSK Slavia Prague
2024-12-20€12MSK Slavia Prague
2025-03-18€15MTottenham Hotspur
2025-05-30€15MTottenham Hotspur
2025-12-09€13MTottenham Hotspur
2026-06-03€15MTottenham Hotspur

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.214

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 43% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€15MSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 92% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€15MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Kinský appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).