FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Frederik

Gytkjaer

CFDenmark · Lyngby Boldklub

№ 72402Emerging €218k +0.14

Player dossierSuperliga

FrederikGytkjaer

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Lyngby Boldklub
League
Superliga
Nationality
Denmark
Age
32
Height
180 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
18 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Gytkjaer at €250k. Model A, which never saw Gytkjaer during training, estimates €218k: the market value is 15% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.15. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €420k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.14A €218k▼ −0.52B €420k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
21
Minutes
1,327
Goals
6
Assists
2
Started
14/21
Min / app
63
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Gytkjaer…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €250k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €250kModel A €218k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Frederik Gytkjaer's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 77th, Assists per 90 45th, Minutes, two years 27th, Starts 63rd, Minutes, last 365 days 4th, European club minutes 28th77thGoals45thAssists27thMinutes63rdStarts4thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.41 this player0.26 attacker median77th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●1.17

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jul 2012
Peak
€500k
Sept 2019
Model target
€250k
Dec 2025
Valuations
29
2 club changes
Dec 2025€250kLyngby BoldklubValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €250k, Lyngby Boldklub. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2012-07-17€50kLyngby Boldklub
2013-05-24€75kLyngby Boldklub
2013-12-27€100kLyngby Boldklub
2014-06-26€200kLyngby Boldklub
2014-12-18€300kLyngby Boldklub
2015-09-02€350kLyngby Boldklub
2016-01-25€350kLyngby Boldklub
2016-08-12€400kLyngby Boldklub
2016-12-12€350kLyngby Boldklub
2017-12-23€300kFK Haugesund
2018-12-30€300kFK Haugesund
2019-06-24€350kLyngby Boldklub
2019-09-09€500kLyngby Boldklub
2019-12-22€400kLyngby Boldklub
2020-04-08€325kLyngby Boldklub
2020-07-31€400kLyngby Boldklub
2020-12-23€350kLyngby Boldklub
2021-06-04€300kLyngby Boldklub
2021-10-06€350kLyngby Boldklub
2021-12-28€400kLyngby Boldklub
2022-06-20€400kLyngby Boldklub
2022-09-13€350kLyngby Boldklub
2022-12-22€300kLyngby Boldklub
2023-06-26€300kLyngby Boldklub
2023-12-21€400kLyngby Boldklub
2024-06-10€400kLyngby Boldklub
2024-12-09€350kLyngby Boldklub
2025-06-16€250kLyngby Boldklub
2025-12-18€250kLyngby Boldklub

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.138

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Superliga256 players · median €800k

Valued above 11% of the 256 Superliga players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€250kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 6% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€250kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Gytkjaer appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).