FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Yegor

Yarmolyuk

CMUkraine · Brentford FC

№ 717411World Class €35M −0.09

Player dossierPremier League

YegorYarmolyuk

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Brentford FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
Ukraine
Age
22
Height
180 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Yarmolyuk at €32M. Model A, which never saw Yarmolyuk during training, estimates €35M: the market value is 8% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.09. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €10.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.09A €35M▲ +1.11B €10.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
75
Minutes
4,553
Goals
1
Assists
2
Started
50/75
Min / app
61
Cards
14Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Yarmolyuk…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €32M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €32MModel A €35M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Yegor Yarmolyuk's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 21st, Assists per 90 23rd, Minutes, two years 82nd, Starts 45th, Minutes, last 365 days 90th, European club minutes 30th21stGoals23rdAssists82ndMinutes45thStarts90thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,957 this player1,541 midfielder median90th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,800

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Sept 2020
Peak
€32M
Jun 2026
Model target
€32M
Jun 2026
Valuations
16
2 club changes
Jun 2026€32MBrentford FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €32M, Brentford FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-09-04€100kSC Dnipro-1
2021-01-14€300kSC Dnipro-1
2021-06-07€400kSC Dnipro-1
2021-12-20€400kSC Dnipro-1
2022-05-18€400kSC Dnipro-1
2022-11-03€400kBrentford FC B
2023-10-09€1MBrentford FC
2023-12-19€2.5MBrentford FC
2024-03-14€5MBrentford FC
2024-05-27€10MBrentford FC
2024-12-16€12MBrentford FC
2025-05-30€15MBrentford FC
2025-10-17€20MBrentford FC
2025-12-09€25MBrentford FC
2026-03-09€30MBrentford FC
2026-06-03€32MBrentford FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.088

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 78% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€32MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 94% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€32MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Yarmolyuk appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).