FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Mykyta

Turbayevskyi

GKUkraine · Zorya Lugansk

№ 709478Emerging €483k −0.48

Player dossierPremier Liha

MykytaTurbayevskyi

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Zorya Lugansk
League
Premier Liha
Nationality
Ukraine
Age
24
Height
193 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
2 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Turbayevskyi at €300k. Model A, which never saw Turbayevskyi during training, estimates €483k: the market value is 38% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.61. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €819k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.48A €483k▼ −1.00B €819k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
22
Minutes
1,980
Started
22/22
Min / app
90
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Turbayevskyi…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €300k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €300kModel A €483k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Mykyta Turbayevskyi's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 38th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 30th, European club minutes 32nd38thMinutes62ndStarts30thRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player100% goalkeeper median62nd percentile

70%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€75k
Jun 2021
Peak
€600k
Sept 2024
Model target
€300k
Jun 2026
Valuations
12
2 club changes
Jun 2026€300kZorya LuganskValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €300k, Zorya Lugansk. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-06-07€75kShakhtar Donetsk II
2021-09-03€100kFC Mariupol
2021-12-20€200kFC Mariupol
2022-12-06€200kZorya Lugansk
2023-06-21€200kZorya Lugansk
2023-12-11€400kZorya Lugansk
2024-06-06€400kZorya Lugansk
2024-09-12€600kZorya Lugansk
2024-12-17€600kZorya Lugansk
2025-06-10€500kZorya Lugansk
2025-12-18€400kZorya Lugansk
2026-06-02€300kZorya Lugansk

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.475

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 27% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

€50k€200k€1M€5M€300kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 15% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€300kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Turbayevskyi appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).