FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Talha

Ülvan

RBTürkiye · Eyüpspor

№ 708111Emerging €580k −0.37

Player dossierSüper Lig

TalhaÜlvan

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
Eyüpspor
League
Süper Lig
Nationality
Türkiye
Age
25
Height
181 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
21 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Ülvan at €400k. Model A, which never saw Ülvan during training, estimates €580k: the market value is 31% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.45. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €915k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.37A €580k▼ −0.83B €915k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
20
Minutes
1,106
Goals
2
Assists
0
Started
12/20
Min / app
55
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ülvan…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €400k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €400kModel A €580k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Talha Ülvan's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 96th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 14th, Starts 15th, Minutes, last 365 days 31st, European club minutes 30th96thGoals17thAssists14thMinutes15thStarts31stRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.16 this player0.03 defender median96th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Jan 2022
Peak
€400k
May 2026
Model target
€400k
May 2026
Valuations
17
3 club changes
May 2026€400kEyüpsporValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €400k, Eyüpspor. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-01-17€25kSamsunspor
2022-03-17€50kSamsunspor
2022-06-10€50kSamsunspor
2022-10-27€50kGiresunspor
2023-03-14€150kGiresunspor
2023-06-08€125kGiresunspor
2023-10-20€150kGiresunspor
2023-12-29€100kGiresunspor
2024-03-26€125kGiresunspor
2024-06-13€125kGiresunspor
2024-10-16€125kFatih Karagümrük
2025-01-09€150kFatih Karagümrük
2025-04-02€150kFatih Karagümrük
2025-06-25€250kFatih Karagümrük
2025-12-17€250kEyüpspor
2026-03-05€300kEyüpspor
2026-05-21€400kEyüpspor

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.372

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Valued above 15% of the 428 Süper Lig players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 14% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Ülvan appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).