Egor
Pogostnov
CBRussia · Lokomotiv Moscow
Player dossierPremier Liga
EgorPogostnov
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- Lokomotiv Moscow
- League
- Premier Liga
- Nationality
- Russia
- Age
- 22
- Height
- 198 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 26 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Pogostnov at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Pogostnov during training, estimates €2.3M: the market value is 35% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.55. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 23
- Minutes
- 1,873
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 22/23
- Min / app
- 81
- Cards
- 8Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Pogostnov…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
96% this player83% defender median86th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €25k
- Jun 2021
- Peak
- €1.8M
- Jun 2025
- Model target
- €1.5M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 12
- 4 club changes
May 2026: €1.5M, Lokomotiv Moscow. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-06-02 | €25k | Unknown |
| 2021-12-24 | €100k | Lokomotiv Moscow II |
| 2022-06-02 | €100k | Lokomotiv Moscow II |
| 2022-11-21 | €100k | Lokomotiv Moscow II |
| 2023-04-13 | €400k | Lokomotiv Moscow |
| 2023-06-14 | €1.5M | Lokomotiv Moscow |
| 2023-12-13 | €1.5M | Lokomotiv Moscow |
| 2024-07-02 | €1.5M | Arsenal Dzerzhinsk |
| 2024-12-12 | €1.5M | Lokomotiv Moscow |
| 2025-06-04 | €1.8M | Lokomotiv Moscow |
| 2025-12-16 | €1.8M | Lokomotiv Moscow |
| 2026-05-26 | €1.5M | Lokomotiv Moscow |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.438
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premier Liga412 players · median €1M
Valued above 57% of the 412 Premier Liga players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 43% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Pogostnov appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- JubalCBFC Krasnodar · Premier Liga€1.5M
- RamírezLBLokomotiv Moscow · Premier Liga€1.5M
- ChernovCBKrylya Sovetov Samara · Premier Liga€1.5M
- LantratovGKLokomotiv Moscow · Premier Liga€1.5M
- TraunerCBFeyenoord Rotterdam · defenders€1.5M
- KüblerRBSC Freiburg · defenders€1.5M
- WalkerRBBurnley FC · defenders€1.5M
- TrippierRBNewcastle United · defenders€1.5M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).