FairValue

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Portrait of Moisés Caicedo

Moisés

Caicedo

DMEcuador · Chelsea FC

№ 687626World Class €59.9M +0.51

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

MoisésCaicedo

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Chelsea FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
Ecuador
Age
24
Height
178 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Caicedo at €100M. Model A, which never saw Caicedo during training, estimates €59.9M: the market value is 67% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.67. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €52M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.51A €59.9M▲ +0.65B €52M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
95
Minutes
8,110
Goals
6
Assists
6
Started
91/95
Min / app
85
Cards
30Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Caicedo…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €100M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €100MModel A €59.9M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Moisés Caicedo's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 42nd, Assists per 90 37th, Minutes, two years 99th, Starts 94th, Minutes, last 365 days 100th, European club minutes 81st42ndGoals37thAssists99thMinutes94thStarts100thRecent81stEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

4,553 this player1,541 midfielder median100th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,800

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jan 2020
Peak
€110M
Dec 2025
Model target
€100M
Jun 2026
Valuations
20
4 club changes
Jun 2026€100MChelsea FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €100M, Chelsea FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-01-01€50kIndependiente del Valle
2020-10-14€1.2MIndependiente del Valle
2020-12-30€5MIndependiente del Valle
2021-03-18€5MBrighton & Hove Albion
2021-06-08€5MBrighton & Hove Albion
2022-01-06€4.5MBeerschot VA
2022-06-15€6MBrighton & Hove Albion
2022-09-15€25MBrighton & Hove Albion
2022-11-03€38MBrighton & Hove Albion
2023-03-16€55MBrighton & Hove Albion
2023-06-20€75MBrighton & Hove Albion
2023-10-09€90MChelsea FC
2023-12-19€90MChelsea FC
2024-03-14€80MChelsea FC
2024-05-27€75MChelsea FC
2024-12-16€80MChelsea FC
2025-05-30€90MChelsea FC
2025-10-17€100MChelsea FC
2025-12-09€110MChelsea FC
2026-06-03€100MChelsea FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.513

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Joint 4th highest observed value among 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€100MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Joint 6th highest observed value among 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€100MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Caicedo appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).