FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Valeriy

Tsarukyan

AMRussia · Akhmat Grozny

№ 686862Emerging €502k −0.70

Player dossierPremier Liga

ValeriyTsarukyan

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Akhmat Grozny
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Russia
Age
24
Height
170 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Tsarukyan at €250k. Model A, which never saw Tsarukyan during training, estimates €502k: the market value is 50% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.01. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €527k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.70A €502k▼ −0.75B €527k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
30
Minutes
1,165
Goals
4
Assists
1
Started
11/30
Min / app
39
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Tsarukyan…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €250k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €250kModel A €502k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Valeriy Tsarukyan's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 94th, Assists per 90 42nd, Minutes, two years 17th, Starts 9th, Minutes, last 365 days 5th, European club minutes 30th94thGoals42ndAssists17thMinutes9thStarts5thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.31 this player0.08 midfielder median94th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Sept 2019
Peak
€400k
Dec 2024
Model target
€250k
May 2026
Valuations
15
5 club changes
May 2026€250kAkhmat GroznyValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €250k, Akhmat Grozny. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-09-12€25kDinamo Stavropol
2019-12-23€25kDinamo Stavropol
2020-06-29€25kDinamo Stavropol
2020-12-29€125kDinamo Stavropol
2021-05-24€150kFakel Voronezh
2021-12-03€150kFakel Voronezh
2022-05-30€150kFakel Voronezh
2022-12-08€250kVolgar Astrakhan
2023-06-19€300kVolgar Astrakhan
2023-11-30€350kAlania Vladikavkaz
2024-06-04€300kFC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod
2024-12-12€400kFC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod
2025-06-04€350kFC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod
2025-12-16€300kFC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod
2026-05-26€250kAkhmat Grozny

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.697

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 3% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€250kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 5% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€250kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Tsarukyan appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).