FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Calegari

RBBrazil · Eyüpspor

№ 686597Established €1.8M +0.34

Player dossierSüper Lig

Calegari

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
Eyüpspor
League
Süper Lig
Nationality
Brazil
Age
24
Height
171 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
21 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Calegari at €2.5M. Model A, which never saw Calegari during training, estimates €1.8M: the market value is 41% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.41. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.9M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.34A €1.8M▲ +0.27B €1.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
40
Minutes
3,114
Goals
1
Assists
4
Started
36/40
Min / app
78
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Calegari…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2.5MModel A €1.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Calegari's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 47th, Assists per 90 81st, Minutes, two years 55th, Starts 69th, Minutes, last 365 days 48th, European club minutes 30th47thGoals81stAssists55thMinutes69thStarts48thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.12 this player0.04 defender median81st percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Aug 2019
Peak
€5M
Nov 2022
Model target
€2.5M
May 2026
Valuations
20
5 club changes
May 2026€2.5MEyüpsporValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €2.5M, Eyüpspor. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-08-15€50kFluminense FC U20
2019-11-27€50kFluminense FC U20
2020-09-09€900kFluminense Football Club
2020-10-08€2MFluminense Football Club
2021-02-09€2.5MFluminense Football Club
2021-05-28€4MFluminense Football Club
2021-12-17€4MFluminense Football Club
2022-04-06€4.5MFluminense Football Club
2022-08-19€4.5MFluminense Football Club
2022-11-14€5MFluminense Football Club
2023-08-22€5MLos Angeles Galaxy
2023-12-18€4MLos Angeles Galaxy
2024-03-28€4MFluminense Football Club
2024-06-17€4MFluminense Football Club
2024-12-19€4MFC Famalicão
2025-05-30€3.5MFC Famalicão
2025-10-01€3MEyüpspor
2025-12-17€3MEyüpspor
2026-03-05€2.5MEyüpspor
2026-05-21€2.5MEyüpspor

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.343

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Valued above 68% of the 428 Süper Lig players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 54% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Calegari appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).