FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Malik

Abubakari

CFGhana · Lyngby Boldklub

№ 682794Emerging €382k +0.05

Player dossierSuperliga

MalikAbubakari

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Lyngby Boldklub
League
Superliga
Nationality
Ghana
Age
25
Height
185 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
18 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Abubakari at €400k. Model A, which never saw Abubakari during training, estimates €382k: the market value is 5% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.05. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €487k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.05A €382k▼ −0.20B €487k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
21
Minutes
734
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
7/21
Min / app
35
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Abubakari…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €400k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €400kModel A €382k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Malik Abubakari's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 3rd, Assists per 90 6th, Minutes, two years 10th, Starts 14th, Minutes, last 365 days 2nd, European club minutes 28th3rdGoals6thAssists10thMinutes14thStarts2ndRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

0% this player0% attacker median28th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Aug 2020
Peak
€1M
Jun 2022
Model target
€400k
Dec 2025
Valuations
14
6 club changes
Dec 2025€400kLyngby BoldklubValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €400k, Lyngby Boldklub. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-08-17€100kMoreirense FC
2020-11-02€200kCasa Pia AC
2021-06-29€400kCasa Pia AC
2021-09-17€600kMalmö FF
2021-12-17€600kMalmö FF
2022-06-24€1MMalmö FF
2022-07-25€1MHJK Helsinki
2022-10-27€700kHJK Helsinki
2023-06-21€700kSlovan Bratislava
2023-12-27€550kSlovan Bratislava
2024-06-10€600kViborg FF
2024-12-09€500kLyngby Boldklub
2025-06-16€400kLyngby Boldklub
2025-12-18€400kLyngby Boldklub

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.046

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Superliga256 players · median €800k

Valued above 17% of the 256 Superliga players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 11% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Abubakari appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).