Vini
Souza
DMBrazil · VfL Wolfsburg
Player dossierBundesliga
ViniSouza
DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- VfL Wolfsburg
- League
- Bundesliga
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Age
- 26
- Height
- 187 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 27 May 2026
BundesligaReading the valuation
The market values Souza at €7M. Model A, which never saw Souza during training, estimates €3.8M: the market value is 86% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.86. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 26
- Minutes
- 1,930
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 24/26
- Min / app
- 74
- Cards
- 7Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Souza…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €7M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
92% this player69% midfielder median90th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €200k
- Oct 2020
- Peak
- €15M
- May 2025
- Model target
- €7M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 16
- 4 club changes
May 2026: €7M, VfL Wolfsburg. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-10-21 | €200k | Lommel SK |
| 2021-02-23 | €500k | Lommel SK |
| 2021-10-06 | €500k | KV Mechelen |
| 2022-01-06 | €1M | KV Mechelen |
| 2022-04-12 | €1.3M | KV Mechelen |
| 2022-05-26 | €4.5M | KV Mechelen |
| 2022-11-07 | €7M | RCD Espanyol Barcelona |
| 2023-06-13 | €6M | RCD Espanyol Barcelona |
| 2023-10-09 | €12M | Sheffield United |
| 2023-12-19 | €12M | Sheffield United |
| 2024-05-27 | €12M | Sheffield United |
| 2024-12-30 | €14M | Sheffield United |
| 2025-05-27 | €15M | Sheffield United |
| 2025-12-19 | €12M | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2026-03-20 | €8M | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2026-05-27 | €7M | VfL Wolfsburg |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.619
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Bundesliga451 players · median €5M
Valued above 56% of the 451 Bundesliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 71% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Souza appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- HenrichsRBRB Leipzig · Bundesliga€7M
- HonoratRWBorussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga€7M
- HackLWBorussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga€7M
- BensebainiCBBorussia Dortmund · Bundesliga€7M
- CristanteDMAS Roma · midfielders€7M
- WinksDMLeicester City · midfielders€7M
- TaliscaAMFenerbahce · midfielders€7M
- MoroDMBologna FC 1909 · midfielders€7M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).