Jarrad
Branthwaite
CBEngland · Everton FC
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierPremier League
JarradBranthwaite
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- Everton FC
- League
- Premier League
- Nationality
- England
- Age
- 23
- Height
- 195 cm
- Foot
- Left
- Valued
- 3 Jun 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Branthwaite at €40M. Model A, which never saw Branthwaite during training, estimates €12.1M: the market value is 231% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×3.31. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 42
- Minutes
- 3,371
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 2
- Started
- 37/42
- Min / app
- 80
- Cards
- 5Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Branthwaite…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €40M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
88% this player83% defender median64th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €2M
- Jul 2020
- Peak
- €50M
- Mar 2025
- Model target
- €40M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 18
- 4 club changes
Jun 2026: €40M, Everton FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-07-30 | €2M | Everton FC |
| 2020-10-13 | €2M | Everton FC |
| 2021-03-10 | €3M | Blackburn Rovers |
| 2021-06-08 | €3M | Everton FC |
| 2021-12-23 | €3M | Everton FC |
| 2022-06-15 | €3M | Everton FC |
| 2022-11-11 | €3M | PSV Eindhoven |
| 2023-03-17 | €7M | PSV Eindhoven |
| 2023-06-23 | €10M | PSV Eindhoven |
| 2023-10-09 | €18M | Everton FC |
| 2023-12-19 | €25M | Everton FC |
| 2024-03-14 | €30M | Everton FC |
| 2024-05-27 | €42M | Everton FC |
| 2024-12-16 | €42M | Everton FC |
| 2025-03-18 | €50M | Everton FC |
| 2025-05-30 | €50M | Everton FC |
| 2025-12-09 | €45M | Everton FC |
| 2026-06-03 | €40M | Everton FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +1.196
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premier League555 players · median €18M
Valued above 83% of the 555 Premier League players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 97% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Branthwaite appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- ChalobahCBChelsea FC · Premier League€40M
- KamaraDMAston Villa · Premier League€40M
- SarrRWCrystal Palace · Premier League€40M
- KonsaCBAston Villa · Premier League€40M
- DaviesLBBayern Munich · defenders€40M
- GarcíaCBFC Barcelona · defenders€40M
- MartínezCBManchester United · defenders€40M
- StanisicRBBayern Munich · defenders€40M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).