Adam
Karabec
AMCzech Republic · Olympique Lyon
Player dossierLigue 1
AdamKarabec
AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Olympique Lyon
- League
- Ligue 1
- Nationality
- Czech Republic
- Age
- 22
- Height
- 187 cm
- Foot
- Left
- Valued
- 1 Jun 2026
Ligue 1Reading the valuation
The market values Karabec at €7M. Model A, which never saw Karabec during training, estimates €6.5M: the market value is 8% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.08. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 30
- Minutes
- 1,399
- Goals
- 3
- Assists
- 3
- Started
- 16/30
- Min / app
- 47
- Cards
- 3Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Karabec…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €7M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
34% this player0% midfielder median98th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €200k
- Feb 2020
- Peak
- €8M
- Dec 2025
- Model target
- €7M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 18
- 3 club changes
Jun 2026: €7M, Olympique Lyon. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-02-14 | €200k | AC Sparta Prague B |
| 2020-07-10 | €500k | AC Sparta Prague |
| 2020-12-27 | €1M | AC Sparta Prague |
| 2021-04-19 | €1.5M | AC Sparta Prague |
| 2021-06-25 | €2M | AC Sparta Prague |
| 2021-12-26 | €2.4M | AC Sparta Prague |
| 2022-06-22 | €2.5M | AC Sparta Prague |
| 2022-12-14 | €2.5M | AC Sparta Prague |
| 2023-06-20 | €2.5M | AC Sparta Prague |
| 2023-12-20 | €2.5M | AC Sparta Prague |
| 2024-03-27 | €3M | AC Sparta Prague |
| 2024-06-05 | €3M | AC Sparta Prague |
| 2024-12-19 | €3M | Hamburger SV |
| 2025-03-26 | €5M | Hamburger SV |
| 2025-06-19 | €4M | Hamburger SV |
| 2025-10-10 | €6M | Olympique Lyon |
| 2025-12-15 | €8M | Olympique Lyon |
| 2026-06-01 | €7M | Olympique Lyon |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.081
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Ligue 1423 players · median €5M
Valued above 54% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 71% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Karabec appears
- TerminalLigue 1 in the Player Explorer
- TerminalLigue 1 on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- SambaGKStade Rennais FC · Ligue 1€7M
- SimonLWParis FC · Ligue 1€7M
- PerraudLBLOSC Lille · Ligue 1€7M
- CastilloRWStade Brestois 29 · Ligue 1€7M
- CristanteDMAS Roma · midfielders€7M
- WinksDMLeicester City · midfielders€7M
- TaliscaAMFenerbahce · midfielders€7M
- MoroDMBologna FC 1909 · midfielders€7M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).