Evan
Ferguson
CFIreland · AS Roma
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierSerie A
EvanFerguson
CFCentre-ForwardAttack
- Club
- AS Roma
- League
- Serie A
- Nationality
- Ireland
- Age
- 21
- Height
- 188 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 29 May 2026
Serie AReading the valuation
The market values Ferguson at €20M. Model A, which never saw Ferguson during training, estimates €12.9M: the market value is 55% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.55. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 43
- Minutes
- 1,466
- Goals
- 6
- Assists
- 2
- Started
- 16/43
- Min / app
- 34
- Cards
- 1Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ferguson…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €20M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
21% this player0% attacker median84th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €400k
- Oct 2021
- Peak
- €65M
- Oct 2023
- Model target
- €20M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 16
- 3 club changes
May 2026: €20M, AS Roma. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-10-05 | €400k | Brighton & Hove Albion U23 |
| 2022-06-15 | €600k | Brighton & Hove Albion U23 |
| 2022-09-15 | €1M | Brighton & Hove Albion |
| 2022-11-03 | €1M | Brighton & Hove Albion |
| 2023-03-16 | €10M | Brighton & Hove Albion |
| 2023-06-20 | €30M | Brighton & Hove Albion |
| 2023-10-09 | €65M | Brighton & Hove Albion |
| 2023-12-19 | €65M | Brighton & Hove Albion |
| 2024-03-14 | €60M | Brighton & Hove Albion |
| 2024-05-27 | €50M | Brighton & Hove Albion |
| 2024-10-01 | €45M | Brighton & Hove Albion |
| 2024-12-16 | €40M | Brighton & Hove Albion |
| 2025-03-18 | €32M | West Ham United |
| 2025-05-30 | €25M | West Ham United |
| 2025-12-23 | €25M | AS Roma |
| 2026-05-29 | €20M | AS Roma |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.436
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Serie A507 players · median €5.5M
Valued above 82% of the 507 Serie A players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 87% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Ferguson appears
- TerminalSerie A in the Player Explorer
- TerminalSerie A on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- MaignanGKAC Milan · Serie A€20M
- Milinković-SavićGKSSC Napoli · Serie A€20M
- SaelemaekersRMAC Milan · Serie A€20M
- GilmourDMSSC Napoli · Serie A€20M
- SanéRWGalatasaray · attackers€20M
- GrealishLWEverton FC · attackers€20M
- IwobiLWFulham FC · attackers€20M
- AktürkoğluLWFenerbahce · attackers€20M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).