Thierry
Moutinho
RWPortugal · AE Larisa
Player dossierSuper League
ThierryMoutinho
RWRight WingerAttack
- Club
- AE Larisa
- League
- Super League
- Nationality
- Portugal
- Age
- 35
- Height
- 178 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 4 Jun 2026
Super LeagueReading the valuation
The market values Moutinho at €50k. Model A, which never saw Moutinho during training, estimates €91k: the market value is 45% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.82. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €128k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 10
- Minutes
- 577
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 1
- Started
- 8/10
- Min / app
- 58
- Cards
- 2Y 1R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Moutinho…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €50k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
80% this player59% attacker median83rd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Jul 2009
- Peak
- €550k
- Dec 2018
- Model target
- €50k
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 34
- 13 club changes
Jun 2026: €50k, AE Larisa. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2009-07-23 | €50k | Servette FC |
| 2011-10-29 | €25k | CD Badajoz |
| 2012-01-25 | €50k | Servette FC |
| 2012-06-02 | €300k | Servette FC |
| 2013-06-17 | €300k | Servette FC |
| 2014-04-17 | €50k | Albacete Balompié |
| 2014-08-12 | €100k | Albacete Balompié |
| 2015-01-08 | €200k | Albacete Balompié |
| 2015-07-01 | €200k | Albacete Balompié |
| 2016-02-22 | €300k | CD Tenerife |
| 2016-07-15 | €300k | RCD Mallorca |
| 2016-10-27 | €400k | RCD Mallorca |
| 2017-01-24 | €400k | RCD Mallorca |
| 2017-06-29 | €500k | RCD Mallorca |
| 2017-12-27 | €350k | CFR Cluj |
| 2018-05-30 | €400k | Cultural Leonesa |
| 2018-12-23 | €550k | CFR Cluj |
| 2019-06-18 | €450k | CFR Cluj |
| 2019-12-21 | €400k | FCSB |
| 2020-04-08 | €325k | Córdoba CF |
| 2020-10-08 | €300k | Córdoba CF |
| 2021-01-08 | €250k | Córdoba CF |
| 2021-06-30 | €200k | Córdoba CF |
| 2021-12-28 | €250k | Levadiakos |
| 2022-06-27 | €250k | Levadiakos |
| 2022-11-07 | €350k | Levadiakos |
| 2023-05-22 | €300k | Levadiakos |
| 2023-12-28 | €200k | Athens Kallithea |
| 2024-03-13 | €175k | Athens Kallithea |
| 2024-05-23 | €150k | Athens Kallithea |
| 2024-12-18 | €125k | Athens Kallithea |
| 2025-05-16 | €100k | AE Larisa |
| 2025-12-12 | €75k | AE Larisa |
| 2026-06-04 | €50k | AE Larisa |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.597
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Super League356 players · median €600k
Valued above 0% of the 356 Super League players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 0% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Moutinho appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- BotíaCBAE Kifisia · Super League€50k
- KarasalidisCBPanserraikos · Super League€50k
- SimónRBAE Kifisia · Super League€50k
- ZivkovicGKPanetolikos · Super League€75k
- NenêCFAvs Futebol · attackers€50k
- HoilettLWHibernian FC · attackers€50k
- MatiasLWSC Farense · attackers€50k
- McKenzieRWKilmarnock FC · attackers€50k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).