FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Thelo

Aasgaard

AMNorway · Rangers FC

№ 647384Established €2.8M −0.01

Player dossierPremiership

TheloAasgaard

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Rangers FC
League
Premiership
Nationality
Norway
Age
24
Height
188 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
20 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Aasgaard at €2.8M. Model A, which never saw Aasgaard during training, estimates €2.8M: the market value is 1% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.01. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €5.7M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.01A €2.8M▼ −0.72B €5.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
40
Minutes
2,061
Goals
6
Assists
5
Started
23/40
Min / app
52
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Aasgaard…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2.8M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2.8MModel A €2.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Thelo Aasgaard's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 91st, Assists per 90 87th, Minutes, two years 38th, Starts 31st, Minutes, last 365 days 66th, European club minutes 90th91stGoals87thAssists38thMinutes31stStarts66thRecent90thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.26 this player0.08 midfielder median91st percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€250k
Jun 2022
Peak
€3M
Oct 2025
Model target
€2.8M
May 2026
Valuations
12
2 club changes
May 2026€2.8MRangers FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €2.8M, Rangers FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-06-30€250kWigan Athletic
2022-09-14€500kWigan Athletic
2022-10-27€500kWigan Athletic
2023-06-01€700kWigan Athletic
2023-12-27€700kWigan Athletic
2024-06-28€700kWigan Athletic
2024-12-27€1MWigan Athletic
2025-03-28€2MLuton Town
2025-05-27€2MLuton Town
2025-10-08€3MRangers FC
2025-12-10€2.8MRangers FC
2026-05-20€2.8MRangers FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.006

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Valued above 88% of the 311 Premiership players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€2.8MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 55% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2.8MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Aasgaard appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).