FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Dylan

Tait

CMScotland · Falkirk FC

№ 647281Emerging €882k −0.10

Player dossierPremiership

DylanTait

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Falkirk FC
League
Premiership
Nationality
Scotland
Age
24
Height
176 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
20 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Tait at €800k. Model A, which never saw Tait during training, estimates €882k: the market value is 9% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.10. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.10A €882k▼ −0.59B €1.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
37
Minutes
2,805
Goals
3
Assists
1
Started
33/37
Min / app
76
Cards
10Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Tait…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €800k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €800kModel A €882k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Dylan Tait's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 55th, Assists per 90 21st, Minutes, two years 54th, Starts 86th, Minutes, last 365 days 87th, European club minutes 30th55thGoals21stAssists54thMinutes86thStarts87thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,805 this player1,541 midfielder median87th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,800

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Jul 2020
Peak
€800k
May 2026
Model target
€800k
May 2026
Valuations
14
4 club changes
May 2026€800kFalkirk FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €800k, Falkirk FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-07-21€200kRaith Rovers FC
2021-01-18€350kRaith Rovers FC
2021-06-03€350kRaith Rovers FC
2021-12-31€400kRaith Rovers FC
2022-06-27€400kHibernian FC B
2022-12-13€325kArbroath FC
2023-06-26€325kHibernian FC B
2024-10-04€100kFalkirk FC
2024-12-03€200kFalkirk FC
2025-06-17€175kFalkirk FC
2025-10-08€250kFalkirk FC
2025-12-10€300kFalkirk FC
2026-03-05€500kFalkirk FC
2026-05-20€800kFalkirk FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.098

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Valued above 70% of the 311 Premiership players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€800kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 27% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€800kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Tait appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).