FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Eren

Dinkçi

RWTürkiye · 1.FC Heidenheim 1846

№ 645774Established €4.4M +0.32

Player dossierBundesliga

ErenDinkçi

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
1.FC Heidenheim 1846
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Türkiye
Age
24
Height
188 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Dinkçi at €6M. Model A, which never saw Dinkçi during training, estimates €4.4M: the market value is 37% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.37. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.32A €4.4M▲ +0.71B €3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
50
Minutes
2,797
Goals
4
Assists
7
Started
31/50
Min / app
56
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Dinkçi…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €6M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €6MModel A €4.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Eren Dinkçi's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 19th, Assists per 90 78th, Minutes, two years 63rd, Starts 55th, Minutes, last 365 days 58th, European club minutes 59th19thGoals78thAssists63rdMinutes55thStarts58thRecent59thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.23 this player0.15 attacker median78th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.73

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Sept 2020
Peak
€12M
May 2024
Model target
€6M
May 2026
Valuations
17
4 club changes
May 2026€6M1.FC Heidenheim 1846Valuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €6M, 1.FC Heidenheim 1846. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-09-16€150kSV Werder Bremen II
2021-02-10€500kSV Werder Bremen
2021-06-09€500kSV Werder Bremen
2021-10-13€650kSV Werder Bremen
2021-12-15€650kSV Werder Bremen
2022-06-16€700kSV Werder Bremen
2022-11-09€700kSV Werder Bremen
2023-06-22€1MSV Werder Bremen
2023-10-18€3M1.FC Heidenheim 1846
2023-12-14€6M1.FC Heidenheim 1846
2024-03-27€10M1.FC Heidenheim 1846
2024-05-29€12M1.FC Heidenheim 1846
2024-12-20€12MSC Freiburg
2025-06-05€8MSC Freiburg
2025-10-14€7MSC Freiburg
2025-12-19€6MSC Freiburg
2026-05-27€6M1.FC Heidenheim 1846

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.318

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 53% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 68% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Dinkçi appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).