Manfred
Ugalde
CFCosta Rica · Spartak Moscow
Player dossierPremier Liga
ManfredUgalde
CFCentre-ForwardAttack
- Club
- Spartak Moscow
- League
- Premier Liga
- Nationality
- Costa Rica
- Age
- 24
- Height
- 173 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 26 May 2026
Premier LigaReading the valuation
The market values Ugalde at €12M. Model A, which never saw Ugalde during training, estimates €10.6M: the market value is 14% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.14. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €10.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 71
- Minutes
- 4,771
- Goals
- 26
- Assists
- 10
- Started
- 54/71
- Min / app
- 67
- Cards
- 11Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ugalde…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €12M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
Minutes, two years
Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.
4,771 this player2,242 attacker median89th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €200k
- Nov 2019
- Peak
- €15M
- Dec 2024
- Model target
- €12M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 19
- 3 club changes
May 2026: €12M, Spartak Moscow. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2019-11-27 | €200k | Deportivo Saprissa |
| 2019-12-29 | €200k | Deportivo Saprissa |
| 2020-07-13 | €250k | Deportivo Saprissa |
| 2020-08-20 | €500k | Lommel SK |
| 2020-10-21 | €800k | Lommel SK |
| 2021-02-23 | €1.1M | Lommel SK |
| 2022-01-05 | €1.1M | FC Twente Enschede |
| 2022-06-08 | €1.1M | FC Twente Enschede |
| 2022-09-14 | €900k | FC Twente Enschede |
| 2022-11-11 | €800k | FC Twente Enschede |
| 2023-06-23 | €3M | FC Twente Enschede |
| 2023-12-15 | €5M | FC Twente Enschede |
| 2024-03-20 | €8M | Spartak Moscow |
| 2024-06-04 | €7.5M | Spartak Moscow |
| 2024-09-18 | €9M | Spartak Moscow |
| 2024-12-12 | €15M | Spartak Moscow |
| 2025-06-04 | €15M | Spartak Moscow |
| 2025-12-16 | €14M | Spartak Moscow |
| 2026-05-26 | €12M | Spartak Moscow |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.128
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premier Liga412 players · median €1M
Valued above 96% of the 412 Premier Liga players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 79% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Ugalde appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- CostaCBFC Krasnodar · Premier Liga€12M
- AgkatsevGKFC Krasnodar · Premier Liga€12M
- CórdobaCFFC Krasnodar · Premier Liga€10M
- OblyakovCMCSKA Moscow · Premier Liga€10M
- MurphyRWNewcastle United · attackers€12M
- FührichLWVfB Stuttgart · attackers€12M
- BrooksRWAFC Bournemouth · attackers€12M
- GudmundssonSSACF Fiorentina · attackers€12M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).