FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Keane Lewis-Potter

Keane

Lewis-Potter

LMEngland · Brentford FC

№ 644401Elite €31.5M −0.23

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

KeaneLewis-Potter

LMLeft MidfieldMidfield

Club
Brentford FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
England
Age
25
Height
170 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Lewis-Potter at €25M. Model A, which never saw Lewis-Potter during training, estimates €31.5M: the market value is 21% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.26. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €22.7M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.23A €31.5M▲ +0.10B €22.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
81
Minutes
5,530
Goals
7
Assists
8
Started
62/81
Min / app
68
Cards
9Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Lewis-Potter…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €25M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €25MModel A €31.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Keane Lewis-Potter's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 60th, Assists per 90 64th, Minutes, two years 91st, Starts 64th, Minutes, last 365 days 74th, European club minutes 30th60thGoals64thAssists91stMinutes64thStarts74thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

5,530 this player2,607 midfielder median91st percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,624

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€600k
Jun 2021
Peak
€25M
Oct 2025
Model target
€25M
Jun 2026
Valuations
17
1 club change
Jun 2026€25MBrentford FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €25M, Brentford FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-06-30€600kHull City
2021-11-24€1MHull City
2022-05-13€12MHull City
2022-09-15€17MBrentford FC
2022-11-03€17MBrentford FC
2023-03-16€15MBrentford FC
2023-06-20€12MBrentford FC
2023-12-19€12MBrentford FC
2024-05-27€15MBrentford FC
2024-10-01€18MBrentford FC
2024-12-16€20MBrentford FC
2025-03-18€23MBrentford FC
2025-05-30€23MBrentford FC
2025-10-17€25MBrentford FC
2025-12-09€22MBrentford FC
2026-03-09€25MBrentford FC
2026-06-03€25MBrentford FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.231

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 63% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€25MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 91% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€25MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Lewis-Potter appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).