Kaishu
Sano
DMJapan · 1.FSV Mainz 05
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierBundesliga
KaishuSano
DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- 1.FSV Mainz 05
- League
- Bundesliga
- Nationality
- Japan
- Age
- 25
- Height
- 176 cm
- Foot
- Both
- Valued
- 27 May 2026
BundesligaReading the valuation
The market values Sano at €40M. Model A, which never saw Sano during training, estimates €12.9M: the market value is 209% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×3.09. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €8.9M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 74
- Minutes
- 6,674
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 3
- Started
- 74/74
- Min / app
- 90
- Cards
- 4Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Sano…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €40M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
100% this player69% midfielder median99th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €25k
- Jun 2019
- Peak
- €40M
- May 2026
- Model target
- €40M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 17
- 2 club changes
May 2026: €40M, 1.FSV Mainz 05. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2019-06-27 | €25k | Machida Zelvia |
| 2019-12-28 | €250k | Machida Zelvia |
| 2021-01-27 | €500k | Machida Zelvia |
| 2021-06-28 | €500k | Machida Zelvia |
| 2022-01-13 | €650k | Machida Zelvia |
| 2022-06-28 | €700k | Machida Zelvia |
| 2023-01-06 | €750k | Machida Zelvia |
| 2023-06-28 | €800k | Kashima Antlers |
| 2024-01-09 | €1M | Kashima Antlers |
| 2024-06-12 | €1.5M | Kashima Antlers |
| 2024-10-09 | €2.5M | 1.FSV Mainz 05 |
| 2024-12-20 | €7M | 1.FSV Mainz 05 |
| 2025-03-27 | €17M | 1.FSV Mainz 05 |
| 2025-06-05 | €20M | 1.FSV Mainz 05 |
| 2025-10-14 | €25M | 1.FSV Mainz 05 |
| 2025-12-19 | €25M | 1.FSV Mainz 05 |
| 2026-05-27 | €40M | 1.FSV Mainz 05 |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +1.129
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Bundesliga451 players · median €5M
Valued above 93% of the 451 Bundesliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 96% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Sano appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- KobelGKBorussia Dortmund · Bundesliga€40M
- BaumgartnerAMRB Leipzig · Bundesliga€40M
- DaviesLBBayern Munich · Bundesliga€40M
- StanisicRBBayern Munich · Bundesliga€40M
- McTominayCMSSC Napoli · midfielders€40M
- KamaraDMAston Villa · midfielders€40M
- TrincãoAMSporting CP · midfielders€40M
- GonzálezDMManchester City · midfielders€40M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).