Maranhão

RWRight WingerAttack

Club: CD Tondela
League: Liga Portugal
Nationality: Brazil
Age: 27
Height: 172 cm
Foot: Right
Valued: 28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Maranhão at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Maranhão during training, estimates €1.5M: the market value is 3% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.03. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 34
Minutes: 2,500
Goals: 6
Assists: 3
Started: 30/34
Min / app: 74
Cards: 7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Maranhão…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

88% this player59% attacker median92nd percentile

5%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €50k; Feb 2020
Peak: €1.5M; Dec 2025
Model target: €1.5M; May 2026
Valuations: 9; 1 club change

May 2026€1.5MCD TondelaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1.5M, CD Tondela. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2020-02-20	€50k	Sport Club do Recife
2020-09-09	€50k	Sport Club do Recife
2023-12-14	€150k	CD Tondela
2024-06-20	€175k	CD Tondela
2024-10-29	€375k	CD Tondela
2024-12-16	€650k	CD Tondela
2025-06-23	€1.2M	CD Tondela
2025-12-18	€1.5M	CD Tondela
2026-05-28	€1.5M	CD Tondela

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: −0.025

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 53% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

See them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 37% of the 1,583 attackers.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Maranhão appears

TerminalLiga Portugal in the Player Explorer
TerminalLiga Portugal on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).