FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Eduardo

Camavinga

CMFrance · Real Madrid

№ 640428World Class €31.4M +0.46

Player dossierLaLiga

EduardoCamavinga

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Real Madrid
League
LaLiga
Nationality
France
Age
23
Height
182 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Camavinga at €50M. Model A, which never saw Camavinga during training, estimates €31.4M: the market value is 59% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.59. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €20.9M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.46A €31.4M▲ +0.87B €20.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
77
Minutes
4,219
Goals
4
Assists
3
Started
44/77
Min / app
55
Cards
12Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Camavinga…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €50M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €50MModel A €31.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Eduardo Camavinga's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 51st, Assists per 90 36th, Minutes, two years 77th, Starts 31st, Minutes, last 365 days 71st, European club minutes 89th51stGoals36thAssists77thMinutes31stStarts71stRecent89thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

23% this player0% midfielder median89th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€4M
Jun 2019
Peak
€100M
Jun 2024
Model target
€50M
Jun 2026
Valuations
22
1 club change
Jun 2026€50MReal MadridValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €50M, Real Madrid. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-06-03€4MStade Rennais FC
2019-09-27€20MStade Rennais FC
2019-12-19€35MStade Rennais FC
2020-03-13€42MStade Rennais FC
2020-04-08€37.5MStade Rennais FC
2020-10-15€50MStade Rennais FC
2021-01-07€60MStade Rennais FC
2021-06-04€55MStade Rennais FC
2021-12-30€55MReal Madrid
2022-06-03€55MReal Madrid
2022-11-07€50MReal Madrid
2023-03-23€60MReal Madrid
2023-06-13€85MReal Madrid
2023-10-13€90MReal Madrid
2023-12-22€90MReal Madrid
2024-06-07€100MReal Madrid
2024-12-27€80MReal Madrid
2025-03-21€70MReal Madrid
2025-06-09€60MReal Madrid
2025-10-02€50MReal Madrid
2025-12-12€50MReal Madrid
2026-06-05€50MReal Madrid

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.464

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 96% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€50MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 97% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€50MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Camavinga appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).