FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Jofre

Carreras

RWSpain · RCD Espanyol Barcelona

№ 628498Established €3.3M −0.09

Player dossierLaLiga

JofreCarreras

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
RCD Espanyol Barcelona
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
24
Height
175 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Carreras at €3M. Model A, which never saw Carreras during training, estimates €3.3M: the market value is 8% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.09. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.09A €3.3M▼ −0.11B €3.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
65
Minutes
3,169
Goals
4
Assists
4
Started
36/65
Min / app
49
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Carreras…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3MModel A €3.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Jofre Carreras's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 17th, Assists per 90 37th, Minutes, two years 69th, Starts 44th, Minutes, last 365 days 36th, European club minutes 28th17thGoals37thAssists69thMinutes44thStarts36thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

3,169 this player2,242 attacker median69th percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●8,788

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Oct 2020
Peak
€4M
Dec 2024
Model target
€3M
Jun 2026
Valuations
16
2 club changes
Jun 2026€3MRCD Espanyol BarcelonaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €3M, RCD Espanyol Barcelona. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-10-08€50kRCD Espanyol B
2021-01-08€50kRCD Espanyol B
2021-06-30€50kRCD Espanyol B
2021-12-30€50kRCD Espanyol B
2022-06-29€100kRCD Espanyol B
2022-12-29€100kCD Mirandés
2023-06-14€200kCD Mirandés
2023-10-13€600kRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2023-12-20€1MRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2024-03-26€1.5MRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2024-06-24€1.8MRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2024-10-11€2.5MRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2024-12-27€4MRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2025-06-09€3MRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2025-12-12€3MRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2026-06-05€3MRCD Espanyol Barcelona

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.085

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 40% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 52% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Carreras appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).