FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Benjamin Sesko

Benjamin

Sesko

CFSlovenia · Manchester United

№ 627442World Class €39.8M +0.63

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

BenjaminSesko

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Manchester United
League
Premier League
Nationality
Slovenia
Age
23
Height
195 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Sesko at €75M. Model A, which never saw Sesko during training, estimates €39.8M: the market value is 89% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.89. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €22.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.63A €39.8M▲ +1.22B €22.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
77
Minutes
5,075
Goals
33
Assists
7
Started
59/77
Min / app
66
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Sesko…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €75M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €75MModel A €39.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Benjamin Sesko's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 94th, Assists per 90 41st, Minutes, two years 92nd, Starts 78th, Minutes, last 365 days 67th, European club minutes 71st94thGoals41stAssists92ndMinutes78thStarts67thRecent71stEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.59 this player0.26 attacker median94th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●1.17

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€1.3M
Jul 2019
Peak
€75M
Jun 2026
Model target
€75M
Jun 2026
Valuations
22
3 club changes
Jun 2026€75MManchester UnitedValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €75M, Manchester United. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-07-03€1.3MFC Liefering
2019-12-03€1.3MFC Liefering
2020-04-08€1.1MFC Liefering
2020-07-31€1.1MFC Liefering
2020-12-19€1.5MFC Liefering
2021-06-02€5MFC Liefering
2021-09-06€8MRed Bull Salzburg
2021-12-16€8MRed Bull Salzburg
2022-05-27€10MRed Bull Salzburg
2022-09-20€20MRed Bull Salzburg
2022-11-10€20MRed Bull Salzburg
2023-06-12€24MRed Bull Salzburg
2023-10-18€30MRB Leipzig
2023-12-14€30MRB Leipzig
2024-03-27€40MRB Leipzig
2024-05-29€50MRB Leipzig
2024-12-20€50MRB Leipzig
2025-03-27€65MRB Leipzig
2025-06-05€70MRB Leipzig
2025-12-09€60MManchester United
2026-03-09€65MManchester United
2026-06-03€75MManchester United

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.634

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 95% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€75MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 99% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€75MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Sesko appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).