FairValue

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Portrait of João Pedro

João

Pedro

CFBrazil · Chelsea FC

№ 626724World Class €58.8M +0.31

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

JoãoPedro

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Chelsea FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
Brazil
Age
24
Height
186 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Pedro at €80M. Model A, which never saw Pedro during training, estimates €58.8M: the market value is 36% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.36. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €59.1M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.31A €58.8M▲ +0.30B €59.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
82
Minutes
5,907
Goals
33
Assists
16
Started
67/82
Min / app
72
Cards
9Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Pedro…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €80M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €80MModel A €58.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

João Pedro's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 88th, Assists per 90 81st, Minutes, two years 97th, Starts 85th, Minutes, last 365 days 99th, European club minutes 73rd88thGoals81stAssists97thMinutes85thStarts99thRecent73rdEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,771 this player1,301 attacker median99th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,703

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€20M
May 2019
Peak
€80M
Jun 2026
Model target
€80M
Jun 2026
Valuations
24
3 club changes
Jun 2026€80MChelsea FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €80M, Chelsea FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-05-28€20MFluminense Football Club
2019-11-27€20MFluminense Football Club
2020-04-08€18MWatford FC
2020-07-30€15MWatford FC
2020-10-15€12MWatford FC
2020-12-22€10MWatford FC
2021-03-10€10MWatford FC
2021-06-30€10MWatford FC
2021-12-23€10MWatford FC
2022-06-15€14MWatford FC
2022-09-14€20MWatford FC
2022-10-27€20MWatford FC
2023-03-24€24MWatford FC
2023-06-01€32MWatford FC
2023-12-19€35MBrighton & Hove Albion
2024-03-14€45MBrighton & Hove Albion
2024-05-27€45MBrighton & Hove Albion
2024-10-01€50MBrighton & Hove Albion
2024-12-16€50MBrighton & Hove Albion
2025-05-30€50MBrighton & Hove Albion
2025-10-17€65MChelsea FC
2025-12-09€65MChelsea FC
2026-03-09€75MChelsea FC
2026-06-03€80MChelsea FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.308

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 97% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€80MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 99% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€80MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Pedro appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).