FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Portrait of Conor Bradley

Conor

Bradley

RBNorthern Ireland · Liverpool FC

№ 624258Elite €13.8M +0.59

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

ConorBradley

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
Liverpool FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
Northern Ireland
Age
22
Height
181 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Bradley at €25M. Model A, which never saw Bradley during training, estimates €13.8M: the market value is 81% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.81. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €5.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.59A €13.8M▲ +1.58B €5.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
46
Minutes
2,264
Goals
0
Assists
5
Started
23/46
Min / app
49
Cards
11Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Bradley…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €25M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €25MModel A €13.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Conor Bradley's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 95th, Minutes, two years 39th, Starts 8th, Minutes, last 365 days 35th, European club minutes 88th18thGoals95thAssists39thMinutes8thStarts35thRecent88thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.20 this player0.04 defender median95th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€400k
Oct 2021
Peak
€30M
May 2025
Model target
€25M
Jun 2026
Valuations
11
2 club changes
Jun 2026€25MLiverpool FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €25M, Liverpool FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-10-05€400kLiverpool FC U23
2022-06-15€1MLiverpool FC U23
2023-04-05€1.5MBolton Wanderers
2023-12-19€2MLiverpool FC
2024-03-14€15MLiverpool FC
2024-05-27€15MLiverpool FC
2024-12-16€20MLiverpool FC
2025-03-18€25MLiverpool FC
2025-05-30€30MLiverpool FC
2025-12-09€30MLiverpool FC
2026-06-03€25MLiverpool FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.592

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 63% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€25MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 93% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€25MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Bradley appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).