FairValue

Checking model

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Kasey McAteer

Kasey

McAteer

RMIreland · Ipswich Town

№ 621193Elite €5.7M +0.57

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

KaseyMcAteer

RMRight MidfieldMidfield

Club
Ipswich Town
League
Premier League
Nationality
Ireland
Age
24
Height
177 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values McAteer at €10M. Model A, which never saw McAteer during training, estimates €5.7M: the market value is 76% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.76. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €617k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.57A €5.7M▲ +2.79B €617k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
24
Minutes
1,168
Goals
1
Assists
1
Started
12/24
Min / app
49
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for McAteer…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €10M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €10MModel A €5.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Kasey McAteer's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 48th, Assists per 90 42nd, Minutes, two years 17th, Starts 21st, Minutes, last 365 days 5th, European club minutes 30th48thGoals42ndAssists17thMinutes21stStarts5thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.08 this player0.08 midfielder median48th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
Dec 2021
Peak
€12M
Oct 2025
Model target
€10M
May 2026
Valuations
11
3 club changes
May 2026€10MIpswich TownValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €10M, Ipswich Town. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-12-23€300kLeicester City U23
2023-04-06€250kAFC Wimbledon
2023-10-27€900kLeicester City
2023-12-21€900kLeicester City
2024-05-24€900kLeicester City
2024-12-16€900kLeicester City
2025-05-30€2MLeicester City
2025-10-06€12MIpswich Town
2025-12-03€12MIpswich Town
2026-03-03€10MIpswich Town
2026-05-28€10MIpswich Town

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.566

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 32% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 78% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Where McAteer appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).