FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Ziyad

Larkeche

LBFrance · Queens Park Rangers

№ 618402Emerging €990k −0.21

Player dossierPremier League

ZiyadLarkeche

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Queens Park Rangers
League
Premier League
Nationality
France
Age
23
Height
182 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
3 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Larkeche at €800k. Model A, which never saw Larkeche during training, estimates €990k: the market value is 19% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.24. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.21A €990k▼ −0.55B €1.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
24
Minutes
1,834
Goals
3
Assists
4
Started
22/24
Min / app
76
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Larkeche…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €800k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €800kModel A €990k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Ziyad Larkeche's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 95th, Assists per 90 95th, Minutes, two years 30th, Starts 75th, Minutes, last 365 days 24th, European club minutes 30th95thGoals95thAssists30thMinutes75thStarts24thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.15 this player0.03 defender median95th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€350k
Apr 2023
Peak
€800k
Jun 2025
Model target
€800k
Dec 2025
Valuations
7
3 club changes
Dec 2025€800kQueens Park RangersValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €800k, Queens Park Rangers. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2023-04-05€350kBarnsley FC
2023-10-27€400kQueens Park Rangers
2023-12-21€350kQueens Park Rangers
2024-05-24€350kQueens Park Rangers
2024-12-03€500kDundee FC
2025-06-17€800kDundee FC
2025-12-03€800kQueens Park Rangers

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.213

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 5% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€800kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 29% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€800kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Larkeche appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).