FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Taishi Brandon

Nozawa

GKJapan · Royal Antwerp FC

№ 617377Established €3.6M −0.04

Player dossierPro League

Taishi BrandonNozawa

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Royal Antwerp FC
League
Pro League
Nationality
Japan
Age
23
Height
193 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Nozawa at €3.5M. Model A, which never saw Nozawa during training, estimates €3.6M: the market value is 4% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.04. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.7M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.04A €3.6M▼ −0.07B €3.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
30
Minutes
2,655
Started
30/30
Min / app
89
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Nozawa…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3.5MModel A €3.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Taishi Brandon Nozawa's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 47th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 71st, European club minutes 32nd47thMinutes62ndStarts71stRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,655 this player1,560 goalkeeper median71st percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,970

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Jan 2019
Peak
€3.5M
Jun 2026
Model target
€3.5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
14
4 club changes
Jun 2026€3.5MRoyal Antwerp FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €3.5M, Royal Antwerp FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-01-05€25kUnknown
2021-01-29€50kFC Tokyo
2021-06-29€50kFC Tokyo
2022-01-13€100kIwate Grulla Morioka
2022-06-28€150kIwate Grulla Morioka
2023-01-06€200kIwate Grulla Morioka
2023-06-28€200kFC Tokyo
2024-01-09€400kFC Tokyo
2024-06-12€600kFC Tokyo
2024-12-10€800kFC Tokyo
2025-05-29€800kFC Tokyo
2025-12-10€1MRoyal Antwerp FC
2026-03-13€2.5MRoyal Antwerp FC
2026-06-04€3.5MRoyal Antwerp FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.039

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 73% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€3.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 72% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€3.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Nozawa appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).